January 1, 7 Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip in the Midterms

The midterm elections are rapidly approaching, with Republicans and Democrats vying for the Senate majority.

Here are the seven Senate seats that are most likely to flip in November, according to The Hill.

Pennsylvania

Candidates: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), Dr. Mehmet Oz (R)

Once considered to be an opportunity for the Democrats to gain a Senate seat, the race between Fetterman and Oz is now a toss-up.

A new poll showed the candidates tied at 46%, a new record-best for Oz in a general election survey.

“The question is: Are answers to the questions the voters have about the economy good enough to carry us?” said T.J. Rooney, a Democratic strategist who used to run Pennsylvania’s Democratic Party. “There’s light at the end of the tunnel, and that’s exciting.”

Nevada

Candidates: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R)

The race between Cortez Masto, a first-term senator, and Laxalt has been remarkably close. According to three surveys released this month, the margin has not exceeded 2 points. In the most recent poll, released on Thursday, Laxalt was leading by one single percentage point.

Nevada-based Republican strategist Greg Ferraro said it all boils down to GOTV — “get out the vote.”

“Everything points to a very close election. It’s all about GOTV, GOTV, GOTV,” Ferraro said.

“Most Nevada voters are probably decided. It’s a function now of blocking and tackling — ID’ing the voters and getting them out.”

Georgia

Candidates: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), Herschel Walker (R)

The Hill referred to the Georgia Senate race as one of the most contentious and hard-fought on the map.

“It’s still tight,” a GOP operative involved in Senate races told the outlet. “Is there a Venn diagram where there is 5 to 10 percent of Kemp voters who vote for Warnock? Five percent I can see. Ten percent seems like it’s pushing it.”

Wisconsin

Candidates: Sen. Ron Johnson (R), Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D)

The Hill noted that the incumbent senator Johnson currently holds about a 3 point lead over the lieutenant governor.

Still, Democrats like their odds on Nov. 8.

“Incredibly close. … It feels as good as it ever has,” an unnamed Democratic strategist told The Hill. “There was a moment in early September when Barnes was ahead and then there was late September when Johnson was ahead. It seems like things are tied and a bit of a jump ball.”

North Carolina

Candidates: Cheri Beasley (D), Rep. Ted Budd (R)

The two candidates are vying for an open seat, both hoping to succeed the retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr. The outlet noted that this race is one of the quietest on the map.

“Although it is still competitive, Ted Budd is the favorite to win North Carolina’s U.S. Senate election based on our latest poll numbers,” said Peter Francia, director of the ECU Center for Survey Research.

The ECU poll referenced in Francia’s statement showed Budd leading by 6 percentage points.

Ohio

Candidates: Rep. Tim Ryan (D), J.D. Vance (R)

So far, Ryan has been trailing behind Vance. The most recent surveys show Vance holding a 2.5 point lead over the Ohio Democrat. Vance won the GOP primary earlier this year after earning an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

“Tim Ryan is running a great campaign,” a second unnamed GOP strategist involved in Senate races told The Hill. “The problem for him is predicated on him trying to convince people he’s a Republican. He’s been a liberal Democrat for 20 years. … The idea that this is a race is just silly.”

New Hampshire

Candidates: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D), Don Bolduc (R)

While Hassan remains the favorite in the Granite State’s race, it could be a lot closer than some anticipate.

The latest AARP survey shows Hassan lead the Republican by 7 percentage points — but that could diminish as Americans continue to face economic issues.

On Friday, a firm run by Tony Fabrezio, former President Trump’s pollster, released an internal poll that showed Hassan leading by just 2 percent points (49% to 47%).

“If I’m placing a bet, [Democrats] probably hold on to it, but it’s closer than people think,” said the first GOP operative told the outlet. 

But later that day, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), canceled $5.6 million in ads in New Hampshire, which experts say is a sign that national Republicans are throwing in the towel on the state’s race.

Source: The Hill